Sunday, September 30, 2012

Batting title math

I find it curious that even though MLB, the player's union and Melky Cabrera agreed that he would not be recognized as batting champion, he is still listed #1 on the MLB stats website (as well as every newspaper listing).

There would be no controversy if the #2 hitter, Buster Posey, wins the title outright. What does he have to do over the last four games of the season?

Cabrera is hitting exactly:

(159 hits over 460 at bats (factoring in the one extra at-bat to officially qualify Cabrera for the title)).

Posey is has 175 hits in 520 AB. To better Cabrera's numbers, what minimum number of hits would Posey need?

The formula is:

(175+x)/(520+x) = .3457

Using my basic algebra skills, Posey would need at least 7.52 or 8 hits, ie going 8 for 8. If he does (183/528)= .3466 or .347.

However, that is unlikely. Posey is most likely to get 16-20 more official at bats.

Using this formula: x = .3457 (520 + x)-175

We discovered that 8 for the next 8 is the minimum.

9 AB, he needs 8 hits (rounding up)
10 AB, 9 hits
11 AB, 9 hits
12 AB, 9 hits
13 AB, 10 hits
14 AB, 10 hits
15 AB, 10hits
16 AB, 11 htis
17 AB, 11 hits
18 AB, 11hits
19 AB, 12 hits
20 AB, 12 hits

Not much margin of error.

The exact data, copied from my Excel spreadsheet (note that the at-bats column exceeds the hits column at 8).

# more at bats Hits needed to win
1 5.1097
2 5.4554
3 5.8011
4 6.1468
5 6.4925
6 6.8382
7 7.1839
8 7.5296
9 7.8753
10 8.221
11 8.5667
12 8.9124
13 9.2581
14 9.6038
15 9.9495
16 10.2952
17 10.6409
18 10.9866
19 11.3323
20 11.678

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Hensley activated; Edlefsen clears

The Giants activated P Clay Hensley from the DL, giving the team 37 active players out of a possible 40.

Also, P Steve Edlefsen cleared waivers and was outrighted to Fresno.

Saturday, September 8, 2012

Edlefsen DFA

The Giants announced in order to clear room for P Yusmeiro Petit on the 40-man roster, the team designated P Steve Edlefsen for assignment.

(Uni) Numbers Game

Lots of swtiching of uniform numbers for the Giants. One happened a few months ago that I missed:

Hitting coach Hensley Muelens goes from #31 to #37 for P Brad Penny (#31)
P Dan Otero- #37 to #43
OF Xavier Nady- #68 to #12
OF Francisco Peguero- #57 to #14
P Jean Machi- #79 to #63

P Yusmeiro Petit is now wearing #52.

With Otero donning a third number this year (#87 and #37), according to my records, he becomes the first player since P Manny Aybar (#64, #22, #50) in 2002 to wear three uni numbers in the same season (not including Jackie Robinson Day #42 special, maning Otero would wear four different uni numbers).

Friday, September 7, 2012

More Giants moves

The Giants activated OF Jusitn Christian from the DL and purchased the contract of P Yusmeiro Petit from Fresno.

The team has not announced a corresponding move on the 40-man roster for the addition of Petit.

Also, P Hector Correa cleared waivers and was outrighted to Fresno.

Tuesday, September 4, 2012

SJ Giants moves

The Cal League season continues for the San Jose Giants, starting the playoffs on Wednesday.

The team made some moves in recent days. P Jack Snodgrass and P Kelvin Marte were transferred from Salem-Keizer to San Jose. Justin Schumer and Ryan Bradley were sent to Salem-Keizer to clear room.

More September call-ups for the Giants

With the minor league season ending on Monday, the Giants added three more players from Fresno to its roster: P Dan Otero, P Dan Runzler and INF Emmanuel Burriss.

Runzler was technically on the Giants roster ealrier this year, albeit on the DL. Burriss was designated for assignment earlier this year and had his contract purchased. To clear room, the team designated P Eric Hacker for assignment.

Sunday, September 2, 2012

Giants extend PDC with Grizzlies

A team official confirmed to me that the Giants have extended their player development contract with the Grizzlies. It will be announced when a ceremony can be arranged (either tonight (Sunday) or Monday (the final day of the season).

The Grizzlies have been the Giants Triple-A affiliate since 1998.

Saturday, September 1, 2012

Giants complete day of transcations

The Giants answered the question of cleairng up that final 40-man spot for Xavier Nady (wearing #68) and Jean Machi (#79). The team already transferred Freddy Sanchez to the 60-day DL. The other move came when the team designated for assignment P Hector Correa.

Correa has been injured since June, pitching only 8 games for San Jose. The Giants acquired Correa from Florida in 2009 for Ronnie Paulino.

The other possible 40-man move, calling up OF Roger Kieschnick and placing him on the 60-day DL, became moot when Fresno activated Kieschnick. He played his first Fresno game since May on Friday night.