Monday, September 12, 2011

If the season ended today... (part 2)

After the completion of week 1 in the NFL, here is how the playoffs and draft order breaks down, if the season ended today (see prior post for NFC playoffs).

AFC
1- Oak (1-0)
Divisional pct. (1.00) over SD (.000) for West title; Strength of Schedule (SOS) (.563) over Bal (.500), NE (.500) and Jax (.375) for #1 seed.

2- Bal (1-0)
SOS (.500) over Cin (.438) for North title; Strength of Schedule (.500) w/NE (.500) over Jax (.375);  Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed (3 rank for offense/1 for defense = 4) over NE (2/10) for #2 seed.

3- NE (1-0)
Divisional (1.00) over NYJ and Buf (.000) for East title; SOS (.500) over Jax (.375) for #3 seed.

4- Jax (1-0)
SOS (.375) over Hou (.313) for South title and #4 seed.

5- Buf (1-0)
Conference pct. (1.00) over NYJ (.000); Conference pct. (1.00) w/Hou and Cin over SD (.000); SOS (.563) over Cin (.438) and Hou (.313) for #5 seed.

6- Cin (1-0)
Conference pct. (1.00) w/Hou over SD and NYJ (.000); SOS (.438) over Hou (.313) for #6 seed.

NYJ, SD, Hou are odd teams out with 1-0 records.

Match-Ups:
Wild Card: Cin @ NE; Buf @ Jax
Divisional: Cin/Buf/Jax @ Oak; NE/Buf/Jax @ Bal

On the Clock...NFL Draft order (not taking into account any rights already traded)
1- New Orleans (0-1) (SOS .313)
2- Tampa Bay (0-1) (.375)
3- Atlanta (0-1) (.400)
4- Tennessee (0-1) (.438)
5- Indianapolis (0-1) (.467)
6- Dallas (0-1) (.525)
7- Pittsburgh (0-1) (tied w/Cle .563 SOS; worse combined point for/point against ranking among conference teams (14/14 = 28) over Cle (9/12 = 21))
8- Cleveland (0-1) (.563)
9- St. Louis (0-1) (tied w/Sea .600 SOS; worse combined point for/point against ranking among conference teams (12/14= 28) over Sea (12/14= 26))
10- Seattle (0-1) (.600)
11/12/13- Minnesota/ New York Giants/ Kansas City (SOS all .625, but because a conference tie breaker does not apply (two NFC teams, one AFC), a coin flip will determine these slots
14- Miami (0-1) (tied w/Den .688 SOS; worse combined point for/point against ranking among conference teams (7/15 = 22) over Den (10/9 = 19))
15- Denver (0-1) (.688)
16- Houston (1-0) (.313)
17- Green Bay (1-0) (tied w/Ari .375 SOS; worse combined point for/point against ranking among conference teams (1/15 = 16) over Ari (6/ 6= 12))
18- Arizona (1-0) (.375)
19- New York Jets (1-0) (tied w/SD .625 SOS; worse combined point for/point against ranking among conference teams (5/10 = 15) over SD (7/6 = 13))
20-32- playoff teams to be determined by order of elimination

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